Disengagement, Realignment, and Empowerment
By Yousuf Nazar
September 6, 2010
Admiral Mike Mullen (first from left), the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Pakistani Army Chief Gen. Pervez Kayani (third from left) and next to him, the ISI Chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha
(then Major Gen. and Director General Military Operations) aboard the U.S. naval carrier Abraham Lincoln in Indian Ocean; in a secret meeting on August 26, 2008. Pasha was
promoted to the rank of Lt. Gen. and appointed as the head of the Inter-Services Intelligence on Sept. 29, 2008. [Source: New Yorker]
President Zardari and Pakistan’s main opposition leader Nawaz Sharif own luxury properties in Britain and France besides Swiss bank accounts. It was Britain and the United States who brokered the deal in 2007 with the military as a result of which all corruption cases against Zardari were dropped. The MQM’s Altaf Hussain, leader of the third largest party, has long been beholden to the British for providing him a sanctuary when he escaped from Pakistan in the early 1990s. The critics question how such leaders can ever defend Pakistan’s interests when it comes to dealing with the U.S. or Britain. The army leadership’s record is hardly any different when it comes to coziness with the West and serving Western interests. Former military dictators Zia and Musharraf were propped up by the Americans. Zia and his ISI Chief allegedly left fortunes for their families. Musharraf has been leading a comfortable life in London; the same Musharraf who mocked Benazir and Nawaz for living luxurious lives abroad.
Political Landscape Dominated by Secular but Corrupt Politicians
One of Pakistan’s main causes of failure to evolve as a stable democracy is similar to those experienced by many developing countries in the past; the nexus between corrupt local leaders and the West to serve their mutual interests at the cost of the poor and impoverished masses and their future. Pakistanis will have to break this nexus between the corrupt elites and the West if they want their country to be a self respecting sovereign state that works to promote the interests of its people and not of its army or its corrupt and selfish elites. There are two Pakistans; the real one is of the people which has been highjacked by imposters and the elites. The two Pakistans have become highly polarized due to rising income inequality, persistently high double digit food inflation, absence of social justice, and lack of opportunities for the poor and middle classes.
Another reason of failure has been the inability of the so-called mainstream parties to provide competent and credible leadership. In many other countries, for example, in Latin America, the anti-democracy alliances between the local military, rightwing forces and Americans undermined freedom and welfare of the people but the nationalist and democratic forces eventually triumphed in most countries because they had capable leadership. The prolonged involvement of the army in politics, its manipulation of elections and political governments through corrupt means and unscrupulous politicians has led to the demonization of politics to a degree that that save for incompetent and corrupt individuals like Asif Zardari or Nawaz Sharif, or creations of the establishment like the MQM’s neo-fascist Altaf Hussain or pro-Saudi Maulana Fazlur Rehman (infamous for his double dealings), few wish to navigate the treacherous and murderous waters of stormy Pakistani politics. It is a tribute to the political maturity and patience of the people of Pakistan that despite huge disappointments they have voted mainstream parties into power in every election in the last forty years and rejected the religious or extremist groups.
Yet the U.S. and its cronies in Pakistani military and political establishment would have the rest of the world believe Pakistan is about to be taken over by the Islamic radicals. Nothing could be farther from the reality. Pakistan has been and continues to be an Army with a country as post-independence Pakistan’s most charismatic and liberal leader Zulfikar Ali Bhutto wrote from his death cell in 1978. Bhutto was hanged by Gen. Ziaul Haq who was a staunch American ally. Most Pakistanis are religiously conservative but not of the Saudi or Afghan bent. But it is a mockery of truth to present a country of 170 million as ripe for extremists’ takeover; a country which thrice voted a modern woman like Benazir Bhutto – twice during her life and third time as a martyr – into office. All the religious parties combined have not been able to get more than 10% or so of the votes in the eight general elections since 1970. Throughout its 60-year history, Pakistan has consistently favored secular parties, despite the nation’s origins as a separate homeland for Muslims of the Indian subcontinent. The high-water mark for the Islamic parties, 2002, yielded just 12 percent of the national vote.
Most of the so-called ‘jihadi’ groups owed their creation and sustenance to the former military dictator General Ziaul Haq and would not have grown in influence and power without the support of some well-known and not-so-frequently mentioned forces inside Pakistani establishment including Musharraf and his cronies. What made the matters worse were the misguided policies of Bush administration and more recently the dramatic escalation in the drone attacks conducted by the C.I.A. under Obama’s watch. By most accounts, the number of civilian deaths including women and children far outnumber the alleged terrorists.
Still today, the number of the militants, including the foreigners, does not exceed a few hundred thousand in Pakistan even if the estimates are stretched, mostly concentrated in the tribal areas in the northwest. According to some estimates, the Pakistani Taliban collectively have around 30,000 to 35,000 members. These committed and armed terrorists do pose a serious security challenge to a politically unstable and poorly governed country like Pakistan but parallels with 1979 Iran are simply wrong. In Pakistan, the so-called radical Islam does not have popular or credible leadership around which the masses could or would rally. They would never want to see a Taliban type of regime in Islamabad. As a matter of fact, the record of the so-called Islamist parties is tainted with cooperation with successive military dictators and they suffered humiliating defeat in 2008 elections.
The ‘War on Terror’ Fueled Anti-U.S. Feelings
The growth of the anti-American sentiment in Pakistan has not translated into more political support for the Islamist parties if the results of the recent bye-elections (mostly won by the two largest parties) for national and provincial legislatures are any indication. However, resentment and anger runs deep among the masses against the U.S. polices specially because America is identified with dictators like Zia or Musharraf or corrupt politicians like Zardari. The most critical mistake committed by Pakistani establishment and its “moderately educated and enlightened” English-speaking chattering classes has been their refusal to see that military aggression by the U.S. has been a major contributor to the radicalization of public opinion in the Muslim countries, destruction of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the destabilization of Pakistan. Anyone who points that out is labeled as a Taliban sympathizer or encountered with thoughtless and shallow refrains such as “this is our war.” This is a myopic, unrealistic, self-serving but ultimately self-defeating mantra. It can be argued that it is not a “mistake” on their part, but a deliberate policy for the purpose of serving their own interests.
There is no alternative to a political solution as I have maintained since the second half of 2006 when I started writing for the newspapers and appeared on TV. Non-violent political solution requires not only Pak Army should not use militants as a policy tool but also the U.S. stops playing the “Great Game” in Afghanistan simply because it can no longer afford to, as it belatedly seems to be realizing. The Great Game is a term that was used for the strategic rivalry and conflict between the British Empire and the Russian Empire for supremacy in Central Asia in the nineteenth century. The game has been played since then and the West, Russia, and China all have strategic interests in the natural resources and trade routes of the region.
President Obama addressed the American people Aug. 31 and admitted, “One of the lessons of our effort in Iraq is that American influence around the world is not a function of military force alone. We must use all elements of our power -including our diplomacy, our economic strength, and the power of America’s example -to secure our interests and stand by our allies.” Obama left little doubt about his plans for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan acknowledging, “We cannot do for Afghans what they must ultimately do for themselves”, and announced his intention to start the withdrawal of the U.S. troops next July. He may face serious obstacles including from the Pentagon and the C.I.A.
The Great Game
The U.S. policy and Pak Army’s “wonderland” view of the strategic depth have constituted the core of the problem and not extremism per se, which is a consequence or a byproduct of the core problem. Both the U.S. and Pakistani establishments have been in this game together since the 1980s. The concept of strategic depth is an extension of Pakistanis establishment’s nationalism of the imperial variety which is the core of the mindset of the militaries of the subcontinent; and is not only flawed but has proved to be disastrous. The proud and fiercely independent Afghans will not accept the domination of any outside force.
ISI – virtually under the command of the Army chief - acts as an extension of the C.I.A. at a very high level in the “Great Game”, notwithstanding disagreements and turf battles. In view of the long history of close ties and cooperation between the Pentagon and Pakistan Army, particularly since 1980, The ISI-C.I.A. conflict appears to be largely a charade for the world to justify the expanded military presence in the region otherwise why would the U.S spend nearly a billion dollars for “new and larger” U.S. Embassy facilities in Islamabad.
Does anyone can seriously believe that a weak country like Pakistan, that is so heavily dependent on the U.S. Aid and the IMF, can carry on this double game - apparently in direct conflict with U.S. interests in the region - for nearly a decade until and unless it also is part of the bigger game of the Americans. Such a belief would be a silly assumption in realpolitik.
A New York Times report (July 22, 2008) commented: “There have been bitter fights between the C.I.A. station chiefs in Kabul and Islamabad, particularly about the significance of the militant threat in the tribal areas. At times, the view from Kabul has been not only that the ISI is actively aiding the militants, but that C.I.A. officers in Pakistan refuse to confront the I.S.I. over the issue.”
The U.S. officials were saying not too long ago that there was no difference between al Qaeda and the Taliban. Now they seem to be eager to reach out to the Taliban for a political settlement. If that was the objective, what was the fuss about al Qaeda being the biggest threat to the global security? Or was it not really but an excuse to build a military presence in Central Asia and Pakistan or simply empire building by the U.S. military and intelligence establishment.
Fareed Zakaria recently wrote in Newsweek Sept. 4, 2010: “In every recent conflict, the United States has been right about the evil intentions of its adversaries but massively exaggerated their strength.” He added, “The amount of money spent on intelligence has risen by 250 percent, to $75 billion (and that’s the public number, which is a gross underestimate). That’s more than the rest of the world spends put together.”
The Axis of Trouble: United States, Army, and Taliban
Many U.S. and Pakistani officials claimed that Baitullah Mahsud of TTP was guided by Mullah Omar as there was no difference between Afghan and Pakistani Talibans. But was it ever a secret that Omar was part of the Quetta Shura protected by the ISI. Taliban leadership has operated from their base in Quetta city in southwest Pakistan for many years. Who has been trying to fool whom? Many Pakistani and Western analysts - often fed disinformation by the officials - can’t seem to think straight and see through the huge contradictions in the official positions of U.S. and Pakistan.
How come Gen. Pervez Kayani who was the ISI chief from 2004 to 2007 and presided over the resurgence of the Talibans on both sides of the Durand line during this period and the worst period of violence since 2001 during his tenure (2008 - 2010) as the army chief is so close to and favored by the Pentagon and not just that; the top U.S. officials also supported the extension in his tenure as Army chief for an unprecedented three more years. Kayani has been favored by the U.S. for a long time. This is nothing new or a conspiracy theory.The Stratfor, an influential U.S. global intelligence company, reported October 2, 2007 that “with President Gen. Pervez Musharraf due to step down as army chief by Nov. 15, Kayani will emerge as his successor, and given Kayani’s strong leadership credentials, Musharraf as a civilian president will be forced to share power with him.”
The New York Times ran a story “U.S. is Looking past Musharraf in Case He Falls” November 15, 2007 concluding that “at the top of that cadre is Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, General Musharraf’s designated successor as army chief. General Kayani is a moderate, pro-American infantry commander who is widely seen as commanding respect within the army and, within Western circles, as a potential alternative to General Musharraf.”
Sir Simon Jenkins wrote in the Guardian Jan. 9, 2008: “Backing Musharraf has always seemed “a good idea at the time”. The next person to be cursed with Washington’s favor appears to be Musharraf’s successor as army chief, General Ashfaq Kiyani. However, by opting for the realpolitik of dictatorship the west has not just repressed democracy but aided insurgency and terror.”
Given that Kayani’s rise had been actively encouraged and well anticipated and he was the ISI Chief and Vice Chief of Army Staff during 2004-2007 before he became the army chief, it is difficult and almost incredible to believe that he had no hand in Zardari’s rise to power. Kayani must therefore share part if not the whole blame for thrusting upon Pakistan someone like Zardari who is nothing but an embarrassment to Pakistan. If he did it under American pressure, that is even worse.
The Cost of Conflicts
The crux of the matter is that Pakistanis must disengage themselves from fighting America’s proxy wars and battles in the region, which, since 1980, have cost them more than the all the aid that they received. Pakistan suffered huge losses to the extent of over U.S. $ 43 billion ($10 billion in direct and $33 billion in indirect costs) between 2005 and 2010 according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2010, published by the ministry of finance. In sharp contrast, the net financial assistance from the United States, according to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), was just $4.9 billion during 2005-10, excluding $7.9 billion as reimbursements of war-related expenses incurred by Pakistan.
But Pakistan has paid a greater cost than can be estimated in money terms. Pakistan’s support to the so-called Afghan jihad was the starting point when the seeds of its own destruction were sown. In the first phase (1980-1989), ‘Kalashnikov and drugs culture’ spread in Pakistan and contributed to a gradual break down of the law and order and criminalization of society and politics at large. In the second phase (1989-2001), once the Afghan war ended and the Americans left, the militants - under the patronage of the state of Pakistan and its intelligence agencies - organized themselves and formed what came to be known as the Talibans. We have seen the rise of the Talibans since then and the havoc it has wrought.
The sharpest rise in the number and frequency of bomb attacks took place after July 2007 following the siege of the Red Mosque in Islamabad. Red Mosque was controlled by clerics with old and close ties to the intelligence agencies and pro-establishment politicians including Musharraf’s cabinet members. Over 3,400 Pakistanis were killed in more than 200 bloody incidents of suicide attacks carried out in the three years alone between July 2007 and July 2010. Official figures show that 16 people were killed on average in 215 incidents of suicide bombings across Pakistan during the above period. A record number of 1,217 Pakistanis were killed by human bombs in 80 suicide attacks carried out during 2009. On average, 15 Pakistanis lost their lives in six suicide attacks every month in 2009.
There is a big lesson for Pakistan’s rulers. Pakistan’s foreign and domestic policies have been inextricably linked and are intertwined. Fighting proxy wars for some aid seemed liked a good deal to Pakistan’s ruling elites. That ‘good deal’ has become Pakistan’s worst nightmare and the threat of the implosion of Pakistani state is now a global security concern. But do Pakistan’s ruling elites (particularly the GHQ) care or understand this and that the way out of this quagmire would require a change in both foreign and domestic policies?
Pakistan’s Historic Reliance on the West
Although it is common to blame the Pakistani military establishment, Pakistan’s pro-Western policies date back to even before its birth in 1947. Various declassified papers of the British government (e.g. Transfer of Power in India, 1942-47 by Nicholas Mansergh), indicate that the British strategists distrusted Gandhi and were concerned that India, led by the “leftist” Nehru, might fall under Soviet influence. The British found the idea of Pakistan as an independent, pro-Western state quite attractive. Pakistan’s founders sought special relationship with the West, particularly the United States.
Pakistan’s every ruler, save Z.A. Bhutto, followed a completely pro-Western agenda hoping that it would serve as a counter weight to India’s threat. However, the world has changed and more so since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1989, and the emergence of China and India as global economic powers in the last two decades, particularly since 2001. Pakistan has continued to follow the old set of policies overlooking the fact in its quest for containing Chinese influence in Asia and Central Asia; the West’s long term favorite will now be India. However, in the long run neither India nor Pakistan would like to be manipulated by the West.
Pakistan’s military is strategically useful and relevant to the U.S. and NATO as long as it can serve their objectives in central and west Asia because they (for that matter even Iran or Saudi Arabia) do not share Pakistan or Pakistan Army’s view of India as a threat to the regional security and peace. On the other hand, since one of the main strategic objectives of the U.S. is the containment of Chinese, Russian, and Iranian influence in the region, a strategic and military alliance with the U.S. puts Pakistan in a natural conflict with the interests of China, Russia, and Iran.The continuance of the present set of policies implies that Pakistan may be in a perpetual state of military and strategic tension on both its eastern and western borders. This is an untenable and unsustainable position from all angles; economic, geo-strategic, or political. This fundamental contradiction must be resolved if Pakistan wants to transform itself from a dysfunctional national security state to an Asian country with a promise and start a new era of foreign policy that looks toward East.
Pakistan should look East in a Multipolar World
I have tried to provide a framework for a basic and fundamental shift in our strategic and defense priorities in articles written for DAWN since 2006. Pakistan needs a national debate on a fundamental shift in her intertwined domestic and foreign policies. This shift will have to start from the foreign policy. It can’t happen overnight but a beginning has to be made. Pakistan is in Asia and the future belongs to Asia.
The case for a fundamental and strategic shift in the foreign policy is not based on any emotional notion of national pride or anti-West feeling. I had written in DAWN on October 15, 2008: “The biggest casualty of the western financial meltdown might be the U.S. dominance of the global financial system, the linchpin of its global power. And that it is China, with over $1.8tr in foreign exchange reserves- growing at a pace of $40bn a month, which holds the key to the financing of the astronomical budget deficit that the U.S. will have to run to finance the bailout of its financial institutions. The reports of the death of American capitalism may be exaggerated but there is little question that the financial meltdown means the end of its sole super power status in what was described as a unipolar world.”
The Financial Times said in an editorial Aug. 27, 2010: “Great power shifts are usually accompanied by changes in the international reserve currency. So it is telling that China is taking steps to broaden the use of the renminbi among international investors. Dominance of the global economy, Beijing believes, goes hand-in-and with dominance of the global monetary system.”The Economist noted in an editorial Aug. 26, 2010: “An America that is bleeding economically at home, with unemployment stuck at nearly 10% and debts as tall as the eye can see, is losing confidence in its ability, and perhaps in its need, to shape events in far-flung regions such as Central Asia and the Middle East.”
The long term shift in the balance of economic power from West to the East and Pakistan’s geographical and strategic position makes it an imperative for the country to reduce its heavy dependency on the West in recognition of the reality that this is no longer a unipolar but a multipolar world and China is the second largest economy and financially the strongest country in the world as well as the largest and most powerful Asian country.
Relations with China
Pakistani state is too weak to afford to pursue policies that cause tensions with all of its immediate neighbors – India, Afghanistan, and Iran – and are viewed with skepticism and unease by the Chinese who support Pakistan and put up with its “too close for comfort” relationship with Washington because they also need Pakistan. But they never liked its support for the Islamic militants or its very close ties with Washington. Hence, while the Chinese gave Pakistan $1 billion during the financial crunch in 2008 as it came close to a default, they in effect told Pakistani leaders to get the money from the West (U.S. /IMF) because that’s how Pakistan is perceived in Beijing; an old friend who is sleeping with a global adversary – America.
A recent report (China’s caution on Afghanistan-Pakistan, July 1, 2010) by an influential American think-tank, the Council on Foreign Relations, summarized the Chinese concerns about U.S. - Pakistan relations: “China’s geopolitical perceptions are also substantially different from those of the United States. The U.S. role in the region is seen by Beijing as a problem both in its own right, because of the strategic threat that China perceives a U.S. presence to represent, and as a source of destabilization in recent years. Many in China believe that the United States is not purely motivated by counterterrorism concerns if at all but has instead a geopolitical objective: to exert control over the region’s energy routes and strategic chokepoints and ‘‘encircle’’ China. It is a precise echo of Beijing’s concerns about the Soviet invasion in the 1980s, a period which still deeply permeates Chinese thinking about Afghanistan.
China also treats the U.S. presence in Pakistan with suspicion. It sees a commercial threat, believing that its companies may lose the privileged access they have enjoyed, and a strategic one, suspecting that the United States (along with India) intends to weaken China’s position, whether by destabilizing its Balochi foothold on the Indian Ocean or by seizing the Pakistani nuclear arsenal that it played a vital role in developing. The Chinese ambassador has publicly raised concerns about the expansion of the U.S. embassy, which is indelibly associated with many rumors swirling in the Pakistani press about a growing presence of U.S. marines and private military companies in the country.”
In the past five years, a small country like Sri Lanka has received more aid from China than Pakistan. Since 2006, Beijing has provided Sri Lanka with $3.1 billion in financial assistance for various projects. Its aid to Sri Lanka, which was a few million dollars in 2005, jumped to $1.2 billion in 2009, over half the total aid the island has been offered by various countries. China is Sri Lanka’s largest aid donor today - ahead of Japan or the Asian Development Bank.
The flood aid initially announced by China for Pakistan, around $20 million, was notably and strikingly small compared to hundreds of millions of dollars donated and mobilized by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, the two top foreign donors to the flood aid. While Prime Minister Gilani can gloat about this, it should be a cause of concern that the Pakistani government is too ready and willing to beg aid (this time it is likely to be more debt than aid), practically blackmailing the world by raising the bogey of extremist takeover, and either Pakistan does not have friends in the region or its relations are visibly cool with them.
President Zardari has apparently gone out of his way to promote relations with China and remove their doubts about him but has had limited success partly due to his own low credibility and cozy relations with Washington, but largely due to the fact that Pakistani establishment still looks towards Washington as the primary source of diplomatic, financial, and military aid because it has and continues to play the Great Game to serve the Western agenda despite the fact China has been the largest supplier of arms to Pakistan through some most difficult times and has played the most critical role in helping her acquire the nuclear weapons technology and capability.
Pakistan must remove irritants and possible reasons for mistrust in her relationship with China and give top priority to the safety of the Chinese citizens working or living in Pakistan. It did not help Pak-China relations that some militants, allegedly connected with Pakistan’s intelligence agencies, were guilty of serious crimes, including murder and abduction, committed against Chinese citizens on Pakistani soil. It is important here to recount some of the past incidents that caused tensions between Pakistan and China and created misunderstandings.
One source of tension between Beijing and Islamabad in the past was the issue of Chinese Uighur separatists receiving sanctuary and training on Pakistani territory. It is part of a covert CIA strategy to let selected Islamic militant groups operate against China and Russia. Tensions surfaced in Pak-China relations in the summer of 2007 when, according to a former CIA analyst Lisa Curtis, vigilantes kidnapped several Chinese citizens whom they accused of running a brothel in Islamabad. “China was incensed by this incident, and its complaints to Pakistani authorities likely contributed to Pakistan’s decision to finally launch a military operation at the Red Mosque in Islamabad.” It should be noted that a key character involved in the Red Mosque saga was an ex-ISI officer Khalid Khawaja who had known connections with both the ISI and the C.I.A.
Around the same timeframe as the Red Mosque episode, three Chinese officials were killed in Peshawar in July 2007. Several days later, a suicide bomber attacked a group of Chinese engineers in Baluchistan. In August 2008, Islamist extremists abducted Chinese engineer, Long Ziaowei, in Pakistan’s Swat Valley. The Chinese protested vehemently to the Pakistani government and Ziaowei was released unharmed in February 2009.
Following the Mumbai attacks in November 2008, Beijing dropped its resistance to banning the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD–a front organization for the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba) in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in December 2008. China had previously vetoed UNSC resolutions seeking to ban the JuD over the last several years.
Pakistan needs to make Peace with its Neighbors
To defuse tensions and improve relations with India and Afghanistan, Pakistan
(a) should not let the Kashmir dispute hold the process of normalization of relations with India. Pakistan must attach the highest importance to the resolution of water disputes with India, given the long-term decline in its water resources and their significance for its agrarian economy. All forms of communication including travel, telephone, internet, radio and television must be opened between Pakistan and India to help develop better understanding between the two peoples; and
(b) Pakistan must restrict her involvement in Afghanistan only and strictly to the extent it is necessary to maintain peace on the borders and in the north-western Pakistan because it is in her best interests to focus on domestic stability and economic development. Also, the U.S. must end its military and covert operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan and stop the counter-productive policy of supporting corrupt and unpopular elements.
Pakistan needs to realize or should be made to do so that it can no longer afford to fancy that it has a role to play in the “Great Game” or that it needs to control Afghanistan to protect her strategic interests from Indian designs. The reality is Pakistan cannot fight a war for even a short while - few weeks at best - because it will go bankrupt and would have to accept humiliating cease-fire conditions dictated by Delhi and Washington. Kargil provided a miniature sample of this scenario.
Many of the arguments advanced by Pakistani establishment or those of pro-establishment analysts are based on ill-informed and short-sighted considerations and half-baked notions about security threats or delusions about Pakistan’s strength as a nuclear power. But more importantly, they sadly reflect a lack of vision for Pakistan’s future and its role in the region and the world. Musharraf’s adventure as Army chief that led to the Kargil debacle was a manifestation of such short-sightedness and lack of vision. Indian hawks, inside or outside the government, may talk tough sometimes but there is no question, whatsoever, of a full scale military aggression from India because she is a rising global economic power and would never jeopardize its economic growth and billions of dollars in investment flows to have a fight with Pakistan – which is seen as a small but troublesome neighbor.
As far as Pakistani military strategists’ theory of bleeding India through militant activities is concerned, this looks more like a pipedream given the precarious state of Pakistan’s economy and domestic conditions and the emergence of India as the fourth largest economy in the world in purchasing power parity terms and among the top ten ranked by foreign exchange reserves. Given the periodic episodes of Pakistan-linked terrorist attacks in India, it does play games in Afghanistan - with apparently the full U.S. support - and along the border but their significance is overplayed by Pakistani establishment to justify wasteful spending by the Military Inc. and on F-16s.
With respect to Pakistan’s relations with Iran, she must not allow any covert activity from its territory against Iran and should seek to improve bilateral ties by focusing on the grievances of Iran, particularly with respect to Pakistan’s relationship with Talibans and the United States.
Balkanization is the Gravest Threat
Pakistan is not Iran but could be another Yugoslavia. Today the gravest threat to Pakistan is not external. Nor is it the Talibans or the Islamic extremists who have little popular support. It is Balkanization. Why? Pakistan is controlled by a military and civil complex, largely drawn from northern and central areas of its largest province -Punjab, which governs it by striking deals and arrangements with disparate power centers and groups in the minority provinces and areas. Dr. Mubashir Hasan, a founder member of the Pakistan Peoples Party and a close associate and one time cabinet member of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto recently wrote in Pakistan’s Express Tribune that a critical limb of state, the civil services, has collapsed and the government and its administration are too feeble, discredited and unpopular.
This situation has made the governance more dependent on the army making the country largely and practically ungovernable. Pakistan Army’s narrow power base in the central and northern Punjab – has virtually alienated the rest of the country fueling anger and secessionist sentiments, aggravated by a sense of social and economic injustice as central and northern Punjab is also the richest region. In the past four decades, Army has been used to suppress opposition or insurgencies in every province except Punjab.
That only the Army that has been effective, to the extent it could, in rescuing the victims of Pakistan’s recent floods and responding to the emergency points to a greater irony. Not much else works in Pakistan. Nothing or nobody is more responsible for this pathetic state than the Army itself. Hence, Army’s intervention would be a monumental and grave blunder. Pakistan’s current and multiple crises present an opportunity to reform the political system and processes so the army never does have to intervene; mainly for its own sake if it wants to keep the country in one piece. But where one does start?
Economic Development has to be the Top Priority
F-16s or nuclear bombs do not provide security but economic development, together with investment in human resources, in a peaceful environment does and that Pakistan must learn from China. Pak Army must re-evaluate the balance between Pakistan’s relations with the U.S. and China. For starters, its leadership’s goal should to be to have as close a relationship with the Chinese leaders as it has developed with the Pentagon and the C.I.A.
Pakistan can learn a lot from the East Asian experience, particularly from China’s policy to focus on economic development and put conflicts in cold storage. Pakistan must put its house in order now and make economic development its most important domestic and foreign policy objective. This process must start with a gradual disengagement from the external conflicts and redefining ‘security’ to include energy, water and food security as being more important, and reallocation of resources through a restructuring of the armed forces with more emphasis on brains than brawn. The peace dividend, in the form of higher and more stable economic growth, alone would more than offset the illusory benefits of ‘foreign aid’.
Pakistan must seek greater ties in trade, industry, and technology with countries like Japan, Korea and Taiwan and look more towards the East. It should diversify its sources of oil imports away from Saudi Arabia and explore prospects in Central Asia, Africa, and even Latin America and also develop its own natural resources. Pakistan’s excessive dependence on Saudi oil has been a major reason for the growth of extremist groups in Pakistan who enjoyed Saudi support.
The Challenge
“Pakistanis too broken to rebuild in flood crisis”, was the headline of recent newswire story conveying the feeling of despair and despondency among common Pakistanis. The challenge for Pakistan is to bring back hope to its poor, hungry, and homeless; for its generals to show that it is not an Army with a country but one that cares for its people and offers them a future; and for its millionaires and affluent to demonstrate that it can survive as a viable country that is not an aid-addicted client national security state which enriches its elites at the cost of the lives of its people.
Pakistan has experienced martial laws or army-controlled governments masquerading as democracies since 1977. It is not going to be taken over by the Islamist extremists or go through a popular revolution. For the foreseeable future, it is the army that will be most important and decisive factor in shaping the future of Pakistan, with or without martial law. Its fate will also depend on the behavior of its powerful and wealthy elites who will also have to decide whether they would continue to act as bystanders or do something to reverse the march toward self-annihilation. Doing nothing may not be an option anymore! Because the other choice is to let the state of Pakistan wither away and slide further along the path of anarchy and disintegration.
The first and foremost condition to bring hope to the people is to reassure them that the state exists and is relevant to their ordinary lives. While the importance of constitutional, economic, and judicial reforms cannot be denied, the poor and extremely diminished capacity of the provincial and local administrations to perform the most basic of the state functions and deliver essential services is a serious impediment to any reform initiative. Pakistan desperately needs to mobilize financial resources as well as undertake a massive surgery to repair its severely debilitated administrative infrastructure. Developing and rebuilding the physical infrastructure requires both.
The Way Forward
Historically and ironically, the Army establishment - the most powerful force in the country that really matters and can make a difference – has not shown enough realization that the cessation of all external and domestic conflicts is the most critical and essential pre-condition to undertake the urgently needed economic and administrative reforms. It may have arrived at a critical juncture after the huge devastation caused by the floods. The army leadership can and must take the lead and put India, Afghanistan, Kashmir, and nuclear issues on the back burner and focus on nation rebuilding. It can set an example by making deep and voluntary cuts in military expenditure and then by asking the “civilians” to do the same. The army cannot and should not ‘help’ by imposing martial law or some modern form of it but by sincerely strengthening and helping the civilian institutions stand on their feet to perform their roles without aspiring to do the job itself.
Pakistan needs effective governance and to create fiscal space to make investments to repair and rebuild its administrative and physical infrastructure. This can be achieved by downsizing of federal government’s military and civil bureaucracy, decentralizing governance by empowering provincial and local governments, strengthening their capacity, and mobilizing domestic resources. Pakistan cannot achieve a sustainable growth rate necessary to support its 1.7% population growth rate and reduce poverty without huge investment in basic infrastructure and human resources. A February 2008 report by the World Bank warned, “Without adequate irrigation resources, power, and transport infrastructure, the very sustainability of Pakistan as an independent nation may be at stake as shortages could lead to increased social discontent and disharmony amongst the federation and the provinces.”
Since it is so significantly behind other Asian countries with whom it competes in international trade and for investment capital, it should invest much more than the averages to catch up. Pakistan needs to spend 8-10 per cent of its GDP on education and infrastructure. This is not possible without drastic cuts in defense and establishment expenditure, reducing corruption, and more and better tax collection. According to the Transparency International, the most corrupt sector is the government procurement which alone eats away at least 40% (or over U.S. 3 billion) of Pakistan development budget or 2% of the GDP. The country must introduce tax reforms to increase its abysmally low 10% tax-to-GDP ratio to at least 15% within the next five years.
But all of the above requires peace and putting an end to all external and internal conflicts and restoration of conditions that are conducive to resource mobilization and reforms. The State (its Army in effect) may no longer have any option but to change its national priorities and external policies to find a way to transform Pakistan from a dysfunctional client national-security state – which has been and continues to be in a state of constant tension with its neighboring countries - to a modern democracy with a sustainable economic development model which is appropriate for a country with one of the world’s largest, fastest growing, and youngest populations.
Disengagement, Realignment, and Empowerment can help Pakistan find its way out of the quagmire and move forward. It cannot hope to transform itself unless it Disengages itself from overt and covert conflicts; external and internal, Realigns its foreign and economic policy focus from the West to the East, and Empowers its people through genuine and not ‘manipulated or rigged or highjacked’ democracy.
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For those readers who may wish to read further in the above context, there are six articles that I wrote for DAWN during the last four years:
First one was “The gathering storm and its implications” in August 2006, http://www.dawn.com/weekly/encounter/20060819/encounter3.htm
Second was “Setting the record straight” in November 2006, http://www.dawn.com/weekly/encounter/20061125/encounter3.htm
Third was “Musharraf must face an open trial” in August 2008, http://www.dawn.com/2008/08/19/ed.htm#3
Fourth was “Need for a new era of strategic ties with China”, in October 2008, http://www.dawn.com/2008/10/15/top9.htm
Fifth was the “Axis of trouble” in December 2009, http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/12-the+axis+of+trouble–bi-07
and the last was “Limits of military power” in March 2010, http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/editorial/limits-of-military-power-230
